| Estonia: analysts differ concerning CPI fall |
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| Tuesday,July 07,2009 Posted: 20:20 BJT(20 GMT) |
| From:Baltic News Service Article type:Original |
TALLINN, Jul 07, BNS - Estonian analysts' opinions differed concerning the fall in the consumer price index (CPI) in June.
Maris Lauri, Swedbank's senior analyst, found that the fall in consumer prices was somewhat lower than had been expected in June, as the rise in motor fuel prices was higher than had been forcast -- 3 percent on month.
"But the general price fall trend is very clear and strong," she told BNS.
Lauri said that the effect of the tax rises to the July level could be regarded as relatively moderate as discount periods had become almost constant in stores. "Modest demand makes most traders bring down their prices afrter all."
The analyst pointed out that the fall in the price of oil on the world market indicated that the rises in excise need not bring up fuel prices considerably.
SEB financial analyst Ruta Arumae told BNS that the fall of prices in June was somewhat bigger than had been expected -- in June the bank forecast a fall in prices by 0.7 percent against the same month last year.
"In principle this met the expectation that the monthly price fall had stopped for the time being. The fall in motor fuel prices has brought it to a stop," she said.
"Deflation will continue on year after all, there will be a slight deviation from that track in connection with the rise in the VAT and excise taxes," she said.
According to Statistics Estonia the consumer price index fell by 0.9 percent on year in June, but there was no change in the index compared with May.
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